Building Democracy Takes Patience
Rushing to Judgment in Iraq
by Stanley A. Weiss

LONDON - When asked how the French Revolution had affected the 20th century, Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai famously replied, "It's too soon to tell."

Will the Herculean task of building a prosperous, democratic Iraq succeed over the long-term? Just 15 months after the U.S. invasion and a month after the transfer of power to an interim government, it's too soon to tell.

Yet that hasn't stopped commentators from issuing dark predictions in banner headlines: "Outlook is Grim," "Daunting Tasks Await," and "Iraq's Future Remains Bleak." In the New York Times, one observer wrote Iraq's post-mortem under the header "Iraq May Survive, but the Dream is Dead."

But journalism, as Henry James explained, is criticism of the moment at the moment. In an Information Age of instant analysis, the rush to be first often constitutes a rush to judgment. Yet the "first draft of history" rarely reflects the long-term verdict of history.

The inherent difficulty of rebuilding a nation makes for easy ridicule. The "Americans are losing the victory." U.S. policies are "producing results opposite to what we expected." Many fear that "the cure has been worse than the disease."

Recent condemnation of U.S. policy toward Iraq? Actually, these quotes come from the January 1946 cover story in Life magazine deriding the U.S. occupation of Germany. Only in hindsight does the emergence of a prosperous, democratic Germany seem inevitable.

Granted, there was no major anti-American insurgency in post-Nazi Germany. And daily bombings, assassinations and kidnappings in Iraq could still snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Elections scheduled for January 2005 would make Iraqis the first Arabs to freely choose their own government. But elections alone do not a democracy make. Elections can install anti-democratic autocrats or clerics. Even more than the free ballot next year, the outcome of Iraq's grand experiment with "demokratiya" - as Iraqis say it - will depend on whether Iraqis achieve the essential prerequisites for democracy over the coming decades.

What will future historians be watching for?

Safe Streets. If Iraqi police and security forces cannot prevent the bloodshed that marked the U.S. occupation, they will have failed in their first responsibility. Without security, there can be no prosperity or democracy.

What to watch for: A significant drop in the number of car bombings (a record 18 in June), attacks on Iraqi police and security offices, and in street crime, especially in Baghdad, where the rate of 70 murders per 100,000 people is among the highest in the world.

Minority Rights. Throughout history, the failure to protect the political, economic, religious or cultural rights of minorities has been an invitation for bloodshed. In Iraq, a tyranny of the Shiite majority that fails to protect the minority Sunnis and Kurds risks all-out civil war.

What to watch for: An Iraqi constitution that guarantees the rights of Sunni and Kurd minorities and a federal structure that gives a voice to the influential Sunni middle class while safeguarding hard-won Kurdish autonomy.

A decade from now, the persistence of armed Iraqi militias and presence of tens of thousands of U.S. and foreign troops à la Bosnia would reflect the de-facto partition of Iraq.

The $6,000 Question. Good economics makes for good politics. From Asia to Latin America, a thriving middle class that demands stability and rejects extremism has been the key to successful transitions to democracy.

Iraqi household incomes are rising, but professionals, academics, physicians, lawyers and businessmen - the economic backbone of the future Iraq - are being systematically targeted by insurgents who hope to undermine the recovery.

What to watch for: Whether per capita gross domestic product ever approaches $6,000 - the widely recognized threshold above which developing nations succeed in their transition to democracy. At an estimated $1,000 per capita today, Iraqis have a steep climb ahead. Whether the country's $120 billion foreign debt is forgiven and the $36 billion in international reconstruction aid ever materializes will largely determine whether Iraqis succeed in their struggle.

Oil: Curse or Blessing? Oil will be indispensable to Iraq's economic recovery, yet it is a truism of development that the more a country relies on natural resources the lower its growth rate. Exports of Iraqi crude oil may have returned to pre-war levels of 2.5 million barrels a day. But the real test will be how Baghdad uses its petrodollars.

What to watch for: Whether oil proceeds, now managed by the internationally monitored Development Fund for Iraq, support government operations and reconstruction rather than corrupt bureaucrats. Ensuring that oil revenues continue to bolster health, education and economic diversification can help Iraq become the first oil state to succeed as a democracy.

Hearts and Minds. The unprecedented sight of Iraqis electing their own leaders next year could be a defining moment in the history of the Middle East. Yet old habits die hard. Despite decades under dictatorships, most Latin Americans would today choose an authoritarian regime over a democratic one if it could deliver economic benefits, according to a recent United Nations report.

What to watch for: Whether Iraqis continue to believe democracy can deliver the prerequisites for freedom - physical and economic security. Recent polls show that despite the bombings and bloodshed, the vast majority of Iraqis still believe the future will be brighter. So long as that hope persists, freedom has a fighting chance.

Will the experiment to bring "demokratiya" to Iraq and, by extension, to the broader Middle East succeed in the long run?
It is simply too early to tell. But history, not today's headlines, will be the judge.