Shiite Struggle is Crucial for Iraq
A Drama in An Najaf

by Stanley A. Weiss

WASHINGTON--The curtain has risen on a real-life drama of Shakespearean proportions: rival families, slain fathers, ambitious sons, foreign intrigue and murder in a mosque, with the destiny of a nation - and a region - hanging in the balance.
The scene is An Najaf, with its golden-domed Ali Mosque, home to Iraq's holiest Shiite Muslim shrine - the Tomb of Ali, the son-in law of Mohammed, who Shiites believe was the Prophet's true successor.

All the world’s an audience. The West is watching to see if Iraq's Shiite majority can emerge from decades of domination by the Sunni Muslim minority without a vengeful bloodbath. The world's 150 million Shiites, especially the 90 percent of Iranians who are Shiite, are watching to see who gains the upper hand in the holy city that has been the center of Shiite theology for more than 1,000 years.

The struggle for An Najaf has become a no-holds-barred Shiite family feud, as the scions of three religious dynasties vie for influence in post-Saddam Iraq.

In one corner is Iran's favorite, Ayatollah Mohammed Baqir Hakim, 63, son of An Najaf's grand ayatollah in the 1960s. After Saddam tortured him and murdered much of his family, Hakim the Younger escaped to Iran, spending the past two decades heading up the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq and the 10,000-strong Badr Brigade, trained and armed by Iran's Revolutionary Guards.

In another corner is - or was - Washington's cleric in Iraq, Sheikh Abdul Majid Khoei, 50, whose father was An Najaf's grand ayatollah from the 1970s until his death under house arrest in 1992. U.S. forces spirited Khoei the Younger home after 12 years of exile in London to encourage Iraqi cooperation with coalition forces. But as his U.S. bodyguards waited outside, Khoei was murdered inside the Ali Mosque.

And in the third corner is the upstart, Muqtada Sadr, 22, son of another beloved An Najaf ayatollah who was murdered in 1999 by Saddam's henchmen. Sadr the Younger is an equal opportunity hater, opposing the regime that killed his father, the U.S. occupation and Iranian meddling in Iraq. His thugs are blamed for killing Sheik Khoei, along with the keeper of the Ali Mosque (a Saddam loyalist), and threatening Hakim’s relatives in Najaf.

Caught in the crossfire is An Najaf's current Grand Ayatollah, Ali Sistani, 73, the most revered Shiite authority in Iraq. After the city’s liberation, U.S. forces claimed Sistani issued a fatwa, or religious edict, encouraging Iraqis to cooperate with the Americans. But his family insists the ruling has been twisted for political ends. Next, a gun-totting mob loyal to Sadr briefly surrounded the ayatollah’s home and demanded he leave Iraq.

The battle for An Najaf is as much theological as political.

The city has long been aligned with Akhbari Shiism, which holds that clerics should advise but not govern. Shiite clerics have traditionally been encouraged to embrace ijtihad - independent judgment - rather than follow leaders blindly. The slain Sheikh Khoei espoused this strand of Islam.

In contrast, the Iranian religious city of Qom is affiliated with Usuli Shiism, which gave religious legitimacy to Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's Islamic revolution of 1979 and his vilayat-e-faqih, or rule of the clergy. With Najaf under Saddam's boot, Qom's influence grew.

Hakim's return to An Najaf could thus bolster prospects for Iranian-style clerical rule in Iraq. On the other hand, an Akhbari resurgence could further undermine the Iranian leadership and embolden Iranians who seek democracy and better relations with America.

Neither Washington nor Tehran, however, should expect to win Iraqi Shiite sympathies.

The Shiites blame Washington for supporting Saddam for decades and, after the Gulf War, standing by while he killed up to 100,000 rebellious Shiites.

Iran will also find it hard to win the hearts of Iraqi Shiites. Most Iraqis are Arabs; Iranians are Persians, Arabs' historic rivals. The vast majority of Iraqi Shiites remained loyal to Iraq during eight years of war against Iran. Given the choice, Iraqi Shiites choose Arab Iraq over Persian Iran.

How will this drama unfold? With Sheikh Khoei dead, will Washington find another pro-Western cleric? Will Hakim be dismissed as a puppet of Iran? Will the young Sadr play the role of spoiler? Will the elder Sistani play the role of kingmaker? Can a Shiite civil war be avoided? Who will prevail in this power struggle to shape the future of Iraq, and its relations with Washington, for generations to come?

When the curtain falls, whoever has won control of An Najaf may hold the answer.