Pakistan's Ruler Is the Key Player in the Struggle Inside Islam
by Stanley A. Weiss

BANGKOK - The bet that the United States placed on Pakistan is bigger today than it was at the start of the war against the Taliban in Afghanistan. It is also a whole lot riskier. In announcing plans to take on the Islamic extremists, Pervez Musharraf is now the central player in what Jordan's reformist young king, Abdullah II, calls the "struggle inside Islam."

Pakistan has been critical to America's successful war in Afghanistan. Access to bases in Pakistan made it possible to provide quick air support to small specialized combat forces. Politically, having an Islamic Pakistan (one of only three countries to support the Taliban before the war) on the American side helped keep the anti-terror coalition in place.

Today Pakistan is more important than ever. Of course, Washington needs its help in finding and punishing Osama bin Laden, who is thought to have made his way across the Pakistani border. But it is also at the heart of what the war on terrorism is all about: whether Muslim nations are going to follow the social/political model of Turkey, the world's most successful modern, secular Muslim democracy, or of Saudi Arabia, whose puritanical, intolerant Wahhabi vision of Islamic fundamentalism impels its followers centuries back in time.

The outcome of the struggle to determine the future direction of Pakistan is far from certain. In his speech last Saturday, General Musharraf announced a crackdown on religious militants, ordered mosques and religious schools to be brought under government control and banned several militant groups. His words are likely to provoke a backlash from Islamists, well represented throughout his government, including the officer corps.

Prior to Sept. 11, Pakistan was regarded in Washington as a possible rogue state. Remaking it won't be easy.

The country is torn by tribal, ethnic and even intra-religious conflict. Its eastern wing, now Bangladesh, broke away after a war in 1971. Three of its four provinces bridle under the Punjab-dominated central government. And, as has been seen, Islamabad has little control over events along the Afghan border.

So why not leave Pakistan to its own devices? One reason, of course, is that it has a nuclear weapons capability. Just as important is Pakistan's importance as an example. If it can follow the path of Turkey, then so can countries as disparate as Iran and those of Southeast Asia.

The Islamic Republic of Iran, most recently cited by Israel's prime minister, Ariel Sharon, as the "center of world terror," has in fact made great strides toward joining Turkey as a modern democracy. The intensified crackdown on the reformers by the hard-line mullahs - and perhaps also the weapons shipment to the Palestinians that was seized by Israel and prompted Mr. Sharon's comment - are signs of desperation.

Summoning 60 members of Parliament to appear in court and sentencing one to jail are steps reminiscent of those taken by the shah before his downfall.

The vast majority of Iranians are too young to remember either the shah or Ayatollah Khomeini, who established himself as God's representative on earth. What the people see today is an Islamic state that controls too much of their lives, from what they wear to how they act. They want instead a modern, moderate Islamic society.

Arrayed against this popular movement in Iran and similar popular yearnings to join the modern world in much of the rest of the Islamic world is Wahhabism, embraced by Osama bin Laden and financed by the Saudis.

Thanks to Saudi oil money, Wahhabism has reached not only into the schools of Pakistan but also into India, Indonesia and Malaysia, where the vast majority of the world's billion-plus Muslims live - almost 500 million on the subcontinent and some 250 million in Indonesia and Malaysia. The long history of religious tolerance among Muslims in Asia is now under attack by the Qaida network, which supports domestic Islamic militants in both Indonesia and Malaysia.

The United States has a unique opportunity to help President Musharraf set his country of 145 million Muslims on a course away from fundamentalism.

The Pakistanis must do much more than detain 1,500 zealots. General Musharraf should use his moment to change the nature of Pakistan itself. He should not only take control of education away from the mullahs but also break up the vast feudal land holdings and return political power to the middle class.

If he does, he can claim the mantle of his heroes, Muhammad Ali Jinnah, Pakistan's secular founding father, and Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, who ruthlessly forced Turkey to break free from its stultifying past. He can also become the Muslim leader who helped steer Islam away from the abyss.

Stanley A. Weiss is founder and chairman of Business Executives for National Security. The views he expresses are his own.